CoPS/IMPACT Working Paper Number G-166

Title: The global wine market in the decade to 2015 with a focus on Australia and Chile

Author: Glyn Wittwer


The share of global wine supplied by New World producers has increased dramatically since the late 1980s. Australia and Chile have emerged as major exporters of wine. USA has also increased production sharply though its sales have grown mainly in the domestic rather than export markets. This paper uses the World Wine Model to project the wine markets of the world from 2005 to 2015. The model includes different types of wine, so as to distinguish the growing premium segment of the market from the non-premium segment. USA is set to become the largest consumer and importer of wine in the world. Hence, growth prospects for wine exporting nations will centre increasingly on the US market. The Chinese market is likely to follow the pattern set by the Japanese market, in which per capita consumption of wine has remained relatively low despite real income growth. Nevertheless, exports to China of non-premium wine will grow over the next decade.

Paper prepared for a seminar in Chile in August 2007. Research funded by the Grape and Wine Research and Development Corporation (GWRDC) of Australia.

JEL classification: C68, Q13.

Keywords: CGE modelling, wine consumption.

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