This is the disaggregated version of the Rational Expectations version of the Motor Vehicle Tariff application which is the main application of the MONASH Model in the MONASH Model Book.
Here we assume that you have already downoloaded and solved the aggregated (33-commodity) version of this rational
expectations application. The aggregated version is documented in the CoPS Working Paper IP-81 (May, 2003)
Rational Expectations for Large Models: a Practical Algorithm and a Policy Application
by Peter B. Dixon, K.R. Pearson, Mark R. Picton and Maureen T. Rimmer. (download)
The results reported in that paper were obtained with the aggregated (33-commmodity) data base for MONASH.
The results you will obtain here from solving the same application with the disaggregated (115-commodity) version of the MONASH model should be numerically very similar to the results you obtained using the aggregated version of the model. The 115-commodity results are not reported in IP-81.
Note that a GEMPACK licence (at least an Introductory licence) is required to solve this disaggregated version.
As with the aggregated version, this application is slightly different from the one in the MONASH Model Book. This is because the TABLO Input file used in IP-81 has a few additions to the file documented in the MONASH Model Book. See section 3.1.2 of IP-81 for details. The TABLO Input file for the application in IP-81 is called MONASHRE.TAB. You can see the additions at the end of that file.
Save as MONMVRE.ZIP (6.5 Mb) in the ARCHIVE subdirectory of the directory in which you installed RunDynam.
Start RunDynam running by double clicking on the RunDynam icon on your desktop.
Select, from the File menu, the item
Restore Ingredients from ZIP Archive
and follow the instructions below.
Select the ZIP archive MONMVRE.ZIP which you downloaded (see above).
You will then be asked to specify the directory to restore the files to. We suggest that you specify the MONMVRE subdirectory of the directory in which you installed RunDynam. [Probably RunDynam will make this suggestion to you.]
Then agree to all the suggestions that RunDynam makes. At the end you should see a message saying that "Restored application is now the current application.".
On the Sim Overview page you can see that the Base Case and Policy runs will cover 20 years, starting with data for the year 1997 and producing data for each year from 1998 to 2017.
You can also see that Do Rational Expectations ? is checked and that 30 iterations of the Base, 1 of the Rerun and 20 of the Policy will be carried out.
Otherwise all closure and shocks files are very similar to those used in the static expectations version. The changes are as follows:
For more details, see the file AAHIST.TXT in the EXTRA subdirectory of the Working directory.
Click on the Run Base Case button near the bottom of the screen.
RunDynam will run the Base 30 times (30 iterations), each time solving for the 20 years of the Base Case. 30 iterations [This will take six or so hours.]
When the whole run has finished, you can look at the results on the Results page in the usual way.
You will also be interested to see if the results have converged. [In the MONASH rational expectations methodology, the first iteration produces static expectations results. Subsequent iterations gradually move closer to the rational expectations results. Convergence is satisfactory if the results of the last few iterations are very close to each other.]
You should check convergence as for the aggregated version.
Click on the ReRun Base button near the bottom of the screen. For simplicity, say "No" when asked if you want to check that the prerequisites are ok.
RunDynam will solve for the 17 years of the Base Case, this time using the Policy closures rather than the Base closures. In this case, just one iteration is done. [This will take an hour or so.]
Click on the Run Policy button near the bottom of the screen. For simplicity, say "No" when asked if you want to check that the prerequisites are ok.
RunDynam will carry out 20 iterations, each one solving for the 17 years of the Policy. [This may take three or so hours.]
When the whole run has finished, you can look at the results on the Results page.
You should compare your results with those for the aggregated version in IP-81. [Your results will be different but should be numerically very similar.]
You can obtain these as for the aggregated version.
Go back to
Aggregated version of Rational Expectations Motor Vehicle Application
Motor Vehicle Application Page
MONASH Model Page