CoPS/IMPACT Working Paper Number G-161

Title: The Chinese Economy from 1997:2015: Developing a Baseline for the MC-HUGE Model

Author: Yin Hua Mai


MC-HUGE is a dynamic Computable General Equilibrium model of the Chinese economy. The core CGE part of the MC-HUGE model is based on that of the ORANI model. The dynamic mechanism of MC-HUGE is based on that of the MONASH model. This paper documents how the MC-HUGE model is calibrated to China's economic growth data from 1997 to 2005. It also reports how the model is used to forecast a growth path for the Chinese economy from 2005 to 2015. The historical and the forecast simulation produce a baseline or a business-as-usual scenario with which to compare the effects of any changes in economic policies or environment.

JEL classification: C68, F14, O10.

Keywords: China, CGE modelling, economic growth, oil

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