CoPS/IMPACT Working Paper Number G-162

Title: Analysing a hypothetical Pierce's disease outbreak in South Australia using a dynamic CGE approach

Authors: Glyn Wittwer, Simon McKirdy and Ryan Wilson


A dynamic computable general equilibrium model provides a tool for analysing the regional economic consequences of a hypothetical plant pest incursion. The model is very detailed at the industry and regional level. It includes a theory of regional labour market adjustment. In our example, a hypothetical Pierce's disease incursion, direct regional economic losses are magnified by consequent depressed investment in downstream wine processing sectors. Following elimination of the disease, it takes a number of years for the region to recover fully.

JEL classification: C68, Q11.

Keywords: plant disease, CGE modeling

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