CoPS/IMPACT Working Paper Number G-171

Title: Growth and structural change in the Vietnamese economy 1996-2003: A CGE analysis

Authors: Tran Hoang Nhi and James A. Giesecke


We use MVN - a dynamic CGE model of the Vietnamese economy - to investigate the Vietnamese economy's rapid growth and structural change over the period 1996 to 2003. We do this in two steps. First, we estimate changes in variables representing production technologies, consumer preferences, government policy and other structural features of the economy. Movements in these structural and policy variables are then used to explain the recent history of Vietnam's rapid growth and structural change. We find the most important sources of growth and change to be technical improvements, favourable shifts in foreign preferences for Vietnamese goods and employment growth. Other important factors include movement in household preferences away from primary products and towards manufactures and services, expansion in agricultural land supply, and tax reform.

JEL classification: C68, D58, F14, O12.

Please cite the later published version in:
'Sources of growth and structural change in the Vietnamese economy, 1996-2003: A CGE analysis', Asian Economic Journal, Vol. 23(2), June 2009, pp. 195-224.

Keywords: CGE model, Vietnam.

Working Paper Number G-171 can be downloaded in PDF format.

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