CoPS/IMPACT Working Paper Number G-202

Title: Effects on the U.S. of an H1N1 epidemic: analysis with a quarterly CGE model

Authors: Peter B. Dixon , Bumsoo Lee , Todd Muehlenbeck , Maureen T. Rimmer, Adam Z. Rose and George Verikios


We simulate the effects of a hypothetical H1N1 epidemic in the U.S. using a quarterly CGE model. Quarterly periodicity allows us to capture the short-run nature of an epidemic. We find potentially severe economic effects in the peak quarter. Averaged over the epidemic year the effects are considerably damped. Our results indicate that the macroeconomic consequences of an epidemic are more sensitive to demand-side effects such as reductions in international tourism and leisure activities than to supply-side effects such as reductions in productivity. This suggests that demand stimulus policies might be an appropriate economic response to a serious epidemic.

JEL classification: I18, C68.

Please cite the later published version in:
Journal of Homeland Security and Emergency Management, vol. 7, iss. 1, 2010, article 75.

Keywords: Influenza epidemic; Quarterly CGE modelling.

Working Paper Number G-202 can be downloaded in PDF format.

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