CoPS/IMPACT Working Paper Number G-216

Title: Growth and Change in the Vietnamese Labour Market: A decomposition of forecast trends in employment over 2010-2020

Authors: J. A. Giesecke, N. H. Tran, G.A. Meagher and F. Pang


We forecast detailed trends for employment by industry, occupation and qualification in Vietnam for the period 2010 - 2020. The forecast is conducted using VNET - a large-scaled computable general equilibrium (CGE) model of the Vietnamese economy. Inputs into the forecast include independent projections for changes in macroeconomic variables; trend movements in variables describing the details of industry input requirements and household preferences; assumptions relating to Vietnam's foreign trading environment; and projections for government policies. A decomposition analysis is used to identify the contribution of each of the exogenous shocks to the forecast outcomes. This analysis facilitates transparency in forecasting by clearly distinguishing and ranking the factors responsible for generating a particular forecast outcome. It also helps researchers to focus research effort towards improving estimates for those inputs to the simulation that have the most bearing on the outcomes forecast for the labour market.

JEL classification: C68, D58, E47, J21.

Please cite the later published version in:
Giesecke, J.A., N.H. Tran, G.A. Meagher and F. Pang, (2015) 'A decomposition approach to labour market forecasting', Journal of the Asia Pacific Economy, Vol. 20, No. 2, pp. 243-270.

Keywords: labour market forecasting, long-run forecasting, decomposition analysis, Vietnamese economy.

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