CoPS/IMPACT Working Paper Number G-262

Title: Climate change impacts on agriculture and internal migrations in Brazil

Authors: Joaquim Bento de Souza Ferreira-Filho and Mark Horridge


Recent internal migration flows in Brazil differ from historical patterns observed since the seventies. In the past internal migration typically flowed from states in Northeast Brazil and Minas Gerais towards the richer states of São Paulo and Rio de Janeiro. According to Brito and Carvalho (2006) between 1960 and 1990 about 8.1 million people left the Northeast and 3.8 million left Minas Gerais.

This was the "normal" internal migration pattern in Brazil until the eighties, when, according to Brito and Carvalho (2006), a succession of economic crises and expansion of the agricultural frontiers changed the picture. Actually, during the nineties emigration from the Northeast region slowed down considerably; the region became a net recipient of population in recent years. At the same time, the Southeast states of São Paulo and Rio de Janeiro, the main destination for migrants until the end of the eighties, have recently lost population. Some of the migrants leaving the Southeast return to the Northeast, but many go to the dynamic new agricultural Center-west regions.

Presented at the 13th Annual Conference on Global Economic Analysis, 2010, Penang, Malaysia

JEL classification: C68, E17, Q54, R23

Keywords: Computable General Equilibrium, Climate, Internal Migration

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