CoPS/IMPACT Working Paper Number G-269

Title: Updating USAGE: Baseline and Illustrative Application

Authors: Peter B. Dixon, Maureen T. Rimmer and Robert G. Waschik


USAGE is a dynamic, CGE model of the U.S. economy created at CoPS in collaboration with the U.S. International Trade Commission (USITC). The model has been used by and on behalf of: the USITC; the U.S. Departments of Commerce, Agriculture, Energy, Transportation and Homeland Security; private sector organizations such as the Cato Institute and the Mitre Corporation; and the Canadian Embassy in Washington DC. To keep the model relevant for policy analysis, it must be updated periodically. This paper describes a major update of USAGE undertaken for the USITC. In accordance with the CoPS contract with the USITC, the update task was to:

1. build a NAICS-based database at the 400-industry level for USAGE using the 2007 BEA benchmark input-output tables;

2. update this database to 2014;

3. create a baseline projection starting from the base year of 2014 and proceeding at 5 year intervals to 2024; and

4. conduct an illustrative USAGE policy simulation around the baseline.

At the completion of this work in August 2016, the ITC requested a fifth task:

5. update from 2007 to 2015 rather than 2014 and create a baseline from 2015 to 2020.

This paper describes how we undertook the five tasks.

JEL classification: C67, C68, C81, C82, D57, D58

Keywords: USAGE CGE model, data updating, baseline forecasting

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