CoPS/IMPACT Working Paper Number G-319

Title: Expanding Global Bev to enhance analysis of trade policy, COVID impacts and other wine industry issues

Author: Glyn Wittwer


The Global Bev Model is a partial equilibrium model of various wine types plus beer and spirits. This paper summarises four enhancements to the model. First, each still wine type is split into red and white. This is relevant in response to the prohibitive tariff imposed by China on Australian wine imports. Second, an on-premise sector is added to improve the depiction of wine consumption in the model. During COVID, lockdowns and social restrictions have resulted in marked reductions in hotel and restaurant activity, with a corresponding reduction in on-premise wine consumption. Now, the impacts on on-premise and off-premise can be analysed separately. Third, given the importance of interstate exports of wine from California to the rest of the nation, California is split from the rest of USA in the global model. Finally, a top-down module has been added to the model to capture sub-national impacts in Australia and sub-state impacts in California.

JEL classification: C68, F17, Q17

Keywords: global wine modelling, tariff impacts, on-premise consumption

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