CoPS/IMPACT Working Paper Number G-345

Title: Creating a GTAP Baseline for 2014 to 2050 With Special Reference to Canada

Authors: Peter B. Dixon and Maureen T. Rimmer

Abstract

By 2020, the GTAP team had created 4 comparable GTAP databases, referring to the years 2004, 2007, 2011 and 2014. They had also produced a preliminary 2017 database. The aim of the project reported in this paper was to use this time series of databases to derive and apply methods for:

1. estimating trends at a disaggregated level in industry technologies and consumer preferences;
2. creating baseline forecasts incorporating a wide range of macro, demographic and energy forecasts from specialist organizations together with disaggregated technology and preference trends; and
3. updating and checking GTAP databases, and establishing validation methods for assessing the performance of baseline forecasts.

Towards these objectives, we produced several interim reports and 3 final reports. This paper explains our methods and reviews the project findings.

JEL classification: C68, E17, D57 and D58

Keywords: GTAP data; Estimating technology trends; Baseline forecasting; Updating and validation

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