CoPS and Indonesia

Image by Martin Fuhrmann from Pixabay

CoPS has a 25-year association with Indonesia. In the late 1990's CoPS worked with Professor Anggito Abimanyu and others at Gadjah Madah University, Yogyakarta, to construct INDORANI, a CGE model of Indonesia. 3 training courses were held in Yogyakarta during 2001 (picture). The model was used for policy analysis (with a special focus on regional and income disparity) and to analyse the effects of the Asian crisis. The association continued as, following the downfall of Suharto, Abimanyu moved to the Ministry of Finance in Jakarta. He was soon working with Edimon Ginting, a recent CoPS PhD. One influential study simulated the effects of removing gasoline subsidies.

Independently, CoPS Professor Glyn Wittwer worked with Adelaide colleagues to build the WAYANG CGE model of Indonesia, resulting in several agriculture-focused publications (see below).

A new phase began with visits to CoPS by Professors Armida Alisjahbana and Arief Yusuf of the Center for Economics and Development Studies [CEDS] at Universitas Padjadjaran [UNPAD], Bandung, West Java. They stimulated the creation of INDOTERM - a 'bottom-up' regional CGE model of Indonesia, designed to study the national and regional impacts of various economic policies. Armida became head of the National Development Planning Agency [BAPPENAS] while Edimon now worked for the Asian Devopment Bank [ADB]. CoPS, ADB, CEDS and BAPPENAS worked together on several projects examining the regional effects of infrastructure investment (MP3EI); reduced growth in the palm-oil sector; and improved port efficiency. CoPS presented several training courses at UNPAD. As well, CoPS worked with Hidayat Amir at the Ministry of Finance to model energy demands.

% change GDP, Base Forecast
Base Forecast 2006-2030: % change GDP. Poorer peripheral, resource-based regions grow less.

During 2020 CoPS worked with the World Bank to analyse the effects of distorted pricing for Indonesian gas. During 2021 USAID funded CoPS to update the Indonesian CGE database.

Several Indonesians have gained (or are studying for) PhDs via CoPS.

The collaborations have led to various journal articles, working papers and reports, mostly focused on the regional, distributional and ecological consequences of Indonesian economic policies. Some are listed at the end of this page.

August 2014 Dynamic Regional CGE Modelling Course in Bandung
Above: participants at August 2014 Dynamic Regional CGE Modelling Course in Bandung

Research Papers

  1. Edimon Ginting and Alan A. Powell (1999), 'The Economy-wide Impact of Better Governance: Cutting Informal Taxes in Indonesia', CoPS Working Paper no OP-92 (link).
  2. R Stringer, Erwidodo, G Wittwer (1999), 'The Agriculturalization of Indonesia: in the Aftermath of the Socioeconomic Crisis', ACIAR Indonesia research project, Working Paper 99 (link to archive item).
  3. Anggito Abimanyu, (2000), 'Impact of agriculture trade and subsidy policy on the macroeconomy, distribution, and environment in Indonesia: a strategy for future industrial development', The Developing Economies, 38: 547-571 (link to archive item).
  4. Harrison, W.J., J.M. Horridge, K.R. Pearson and G. Wittwer (2004), 'A Practical Method for Explicitly Modeling Quotas and Other Complementarities', Computational Economics, June 2004, Vol. 23(4), pp. 325-341 (link).
  5. Horridge, M., Wittwer, G. and Wibowo, K. (2006), 'Impact of the national rice import policy on the economy of West Java: simulation using CGE INDOTERM', (in Indonesian) Jurnal Sosiohumaniora Padjadjaran University Research Institute, 8(3): 224-239. Indonesian title: Dampak dari Kebijakan Impor Beras Nasional terhadap Perekonomian Jawa Barat: Simulasi Menggunakan Model CGE INDOTERM (link).
  6. Mark Horridge & Glyn Wittwer (2006), 'The Impacts of Higher Energy Prices on Indonesia's and West Java's Economies using INDOTERM, a Multiregional Model of Indonesia', Working Papers in Economics and Development Studies (WoPEDS) 2006/07, Department of Economics, Padjadjaran University (link).
  7. Wittwer, Glyn and Horridge, M (2007) 'CGE modelling of the resources boom in Indonesia and Australia using TERM'. In: 51st Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society (AARES) Annual Conference, 14 February 2007-16 February 2007, Queenstown, New Zealand (link to archive item).
  8. Pambudi, D. and Smyth. R. (2008), 'Making Indonesia more attractive to foreign investors: A Computable General Equilibrium analysis of reducing the risk premium in Central Java', Review of Urban and Regional Development Studies, Vol. 20, No.3, November (link).
  9. Pambudi, D., McCaughey, N. and Smyth, R. (2009), 'Computable general equilibrium estimates of the impact of the Bali bombing on the Indonesian economy', Tourism Management 30 (link).
  10. Bahri, S., Kustiari, R., & Wittwer, G. (2009), 'Effects of farm policy reform on Indonesia's secondary food crops'. In K. Anderson, R. Stringer, Erwidodo, & T. Feridhanusetyawan (Eds.), Indonesia in a Reforming World Economy: Effects on Agriculture, Trade and the Environment (pp. 164-178). The University of Adelaide Press (link).
  11. Erwidodo, Wittwer, G., & Stringer, R. (2009), 'Effects of agricultural policy reform in Indonesia on its food security and environment'. In K. Anderson, R. Stringer, Erwidodo, & T. Feridhanusetyawan (Eds.), Indonesia in a Reforming World Economy: Effects on Agriculture, Trade and the Environment (pp. 179-205). The University of Adelaide Press (link).
  12. Wittwer, G. (2009)., 'The WAYANG Model of the Indonesian economy'. In K. Anderson, R. Stringer, Erwidodo, & T. Feridhanusetyawan (Eds.), Indonesia in a Reforming World Economy: Effects on Agriculture, Trade and the Environment (pp. 244-254). The University of Adelaide Press (link).
  13. Arief Anshory Yusuf, Ahmad Komarulzaman, EL Roos, Mark Horridge (2013), 'Regional economic and emissions implication of oil palm development scenarios: A dynamic inter-regional CGE analysis for Indonesia'. presented at 23rd Pacific Conference of the Regional Science Association International (RSAI)/The 4th Indonesian Regional Science Association (IRSA) Institute, July
  14. Horridge, Mark and Roos, Louise (2013), 'Assessing development policy using IndoTERM, a dynamic multi-regional CGE model of Indonesia', presented at annual conference of European Regional Science Association, Palermo (link to archive item).
  15. Arief Yusuf, Jonathan Horridge, Edimon Ginting, Priasto Aji, (2014), 'Reducing disparity through a regions-focused development: A modeling approach of assessing the Indonesian MP3EI', Working Papers in Economics and Development Studies (WoPEDS) Issue 2014/2, Department of Economics, Padjadjaran University (link).
  16. Edimon Ginting, Arief Anshory Yusuf, Priasto Aji, Mark Horridge (2015), 'Economy-wide impact of a more efficient Tanjung Priok port', ADB papers on Indonesia, No. 03, October, (link).
  17. Mark Horridge, Arief A. Yusuf, Edimon Ginting, Priasto Aji (2016), 'Improving Indonesia's domestic connectivity: an inter-regional CGE analysis', ADB papers on Indonesia, No. 17, August 2016 (link).
  18. Yusuf, A.A., E.L. Roos and J.M. Horridge (2018), 'Indonesia's moratorium on palm oil expansion from natural forest: Economy-wide impact and the role of international transfers', Asian Development Review: Studies of Asian and Pacific Economic Issues 35(2), pp.85-112. (link) (working paper).
  19. Horridge, Mark and E.L. Roos, (2021). 'Effect of Gas Subsidies in Indonesia', Centre of Policy Studies Working Paper No. G-317. (link).
  20. Rashid, A., Nassios, J., Roos, E.L and Giesecke, J. (2022). 'Assessing the Economy-wide Impacts of Strengthened Bank Capital Requirements in Indonesia using a Financial Computable General Equilibrium Model'. Applied Economics. Vol 54, No. 46, pp5287-5304. (link)
  21. Yusuf, A.A., Roos E.L., Horridge, J.M. and Hartono, D. (2023). 'Indonesian capital city relocation and regional economy's transition toward less carbon-intensive economy: An inter-regional CGE analysis'. Japan & the World Economy. Vol 68, December 2023. (link)