CoPS in South Africa and Uganda

CoPS has been working in South Africa since 1993, at first with Dr Dawie de Jongh of the Industrial Development Corporation of South Africa (IDC), to construct the IDCGEM CGE model. It was initially used to forecast the economic and social effects of reducing high tariffs on cars and textiles.

Since 2002 CoPS has worked with Professor J.V. Heerden and his team at the University of Pretoria, who have constructed the UPGEM and SA-TERM CGE models of South Africa. CoPS has presented training courses in Pretoria (2004,2005, 2007, 2008, 2017 ), Cape Town (2004), and Stellenbosch (2011). Two young South Africans have gained PhDs via CoPS, and South African academics are regular visitors.

Rich and poor suburbs of Johannesburg
Wrong side of the tracks: rich and poor suburbs of Johannesburg

Since 2011 CoPS has also been working with Uganda's Ministry of Finance, Planning and Economic Development to build a CGE model of Uganda. The model has been used to simulate the effects of water shortage, or an oil discovery. Courses have been presented at Entebbe (2015) and Kampala (2019).

These collaborations have led to numerous journal articles and working papers, mostly focused on the regional, distributional and ecological consequences of South African or Ugandan economic policies. They include:

  1. Brian R. Parmenter and J. Mark Horridge (1994), Exporting Economic Models: CoPS' Experience in South Africa and Asia, CoPS Working Paper no. G-199 (link).
  2. J. Mark Horridge, Brian R. Parmenter, Martin Cameron, Riaan Joubert, Areef Suleman and Dawie de Jongh (1995), The Macroeconomic, Industrial, Distributional and Regional Effects of Government Spending Programs in South Africa, CoPS Working Paper no. G-109 (link).
  3. Philip D. Adams and J. Mark Horridge (2004), The Effects of a Free Trade Agreement Between the USA and the South African Customs Union (SACU), CoPS Working Paper no. G-147 (link).
  4. Heerden, J.V., R. Gerlagh, J. Blignaut, J.M. Horridge, S. Hess, R. Mabugu and M. Mabugu (2006), 'Searching for triple dividends in South Africa: Fighting CO2 pollution and poverty while promoting growth', The Energy Journal, Vol. 27(2), pp. 113-141 (link).
  5. Van Heerden, J.V., Blignaut, J, Mabugu, M, Gerlagh, R, Hess, S, Tol, RSJ, Horridge, M, Mabugu, R, De Wit, M & Letsoalo, T (2006), 'Redistributing environmental tax revenue to reduce poverty in South Africa : the cases of energy and water', South African Journal of Economic and Management, vol. 9, no. 4, pp. 537-552 (link).
  6. J Van Heerden, H Bohlmann, J Giesecke, A Makochekanwa, L Roos (2007), Higher education impact: Universities in the South African economy, Report for Higher Education South Africa, Pretoria
  7. Heerden, J.V., J. Blignaut, J.M. Horridge, (2008), 'Integrated water and economic modelling of the impacts of water market instruments on the South African economy', Ecological Economics (link).
  8. R. Seymore, P.D. Adams, M. Mabugu, J. van Heerden, J. Nelson Blignaut (2010), 'The Impact of an Environmental Tax on Electricity Generation in South Africa', Journal for Studies in Economics and Econometrics, 34(2): 1-18 (link).
  9. Louise Roos, Philip Adams and Jan van Heerden (2012), Construction and updating of a Ugandan CGE database, CoPS Working Paper no. G-226 (link).
  10. Louise Roos (2013), Construction of a database for a dynamic CGE model for South Africa, CoPS Working Paper no. G-234 (link).
  11. Louise Roos, Philip Adams, Jan van Heerden (2013), The economic impacts of newly discovered oil in Uganda, using a recursive dynamic CGE model, GTAP conference paper (link).
  12. JH Van Heerden, R van Tol, R Gerlagh, JN Blignaut, S Hess, M Horridge, Margaret Mabugu, R Mabugu, M de Wit, T Letsoalo (2013), Double dividends of additional water charges in South Africa, chapter in book 'Nature's Wealth', editors P. van Beukering, E. Papyrakis, J. Bouma and R. Brouwer, Cambridge University Press (link).
  13. L Roos, J. Giesecke (2014), 'The economic effects of lowering HIV incidence in South Africa: a CGE analysis', Economic Modelling, 39:123-137 (link).
  14. Louise Roos (2014), Theoretical specification of a labour-supply module, including HIV/AIDS, for South Africa, CoPS Working Paper no. G-241 (link).
  15. EL Roos, PD Adams, JH Van Heerden (2015), Constructing a CGE database using GEMPACK for an African country, Computational Economics 46 (4), 495-518 (link).
  16. HR Bohlmann, JH Van Heerden, PB Dixon, MT Rimmer (2016), The impact of the 2014 platinum mining strike in South Africa: An economy-wide analysis, Economic Modelling 51, 403-411 (link).
  17. Nhi Tran, Louise Roos, Wilson Asiimwe and Pricilla Kisakye (2019), Constructing a 2016/17 Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) for Uganda, CoPS Working Paper no. G-302 (link).
  18. Bohlmann, H.R., Horridge, J.M., Inglesi-Lotz, R., Roos, E.L. and Stander, L (2019), Regional employment and economic growth effects of South Africa's transition to low-carbon energy supply mix, Energy Policy, Volume 128, May 2019, Pages 830-837 (link).
  19. Jan van Heerden, Louise Roos, Philip Adams, Nick Kilimani (2019), The Effects of Water Shortages on Food Security in Uganda, GTAP conference paper (link).
  20. Jan H van Heerden, Elizabeth L Roos, Philip D Adams, N Kilimani (2019), Any Rain on Victoria Lake Is Only a Drop in the Bucket: A CGE Analysis of the Effects of Water Shortages on Food Security in Uganda, chapter in book 'Economy-Wide Modeling of Water at Regional and Global Scales', Springer, Singapore (link).
  21. Louise Roos (2020), Provincial Equitable Share Allocations in South Africa, CoPS Working Paper no. G-298 (link).
  22. Louise Roos, Mark Horridge, Jan H van Heerden, Philip D Adams, Heinrich R Bohlmann, Kgatedi Kenneth Kobe, and Bokang Vumbukani-Lepolesa (2020), National and Regional Impacts of an Increase in Value-Added Tax: A CGE Analysis for South Africa, South African Journal of Economics 88 (1), 90-120 (link).