The SinoTERM Model

SinoTERM is a "bottom-up" CGE model of China, which treats each region as a separate economy. It is based on the TERM model of Australia. The first SinoTERM database distinguished 137 sectors and 31 regions (based on the 2002 input-output table for China). A version of SinoTERM is downloadable: COPS archive item TPGW0086. Although the downloadable database (47 sectors, 31 regions) is an aggregation of our master database, we believe that it is still larger than any previous CGE or input-output database of China.

SinoTERM developments

Publications about SinoTERM

A longer (working paper) version of the China Economic Review article may be downloaded from here.

An updated database with extraordinary sectoral and regional detail

A prefecture level master database has been created at CoPS using the 2012 input-output table and data from various provincial and national statistical yearbooks. This database includes 162 sectors in 365 regions. The master database and subscriber access to it are outlined here.

Learning to run CGE models including SinoTERM

The Centre of Policy Studies plans to run a SinoTERM course each year in either Beijing or Shanghai. See our list of upcoming training courses.

Contract Research

CoPS offers a package of China-oriented CGE modelling services, described here. Enquiries about consultancies using SinoTERM should be addressed to Glyn Wittwer.

map of China
TERM simulation result: long-run effects on employment of better transport infrastructure
in selected north-western regions (Chongqing, Sichuan, Tibet, Gansu, Qinghai, Xinjiang).
Shows % changes in province shares of national employment.

See also