The Italian Shipping Story

Partly because he was known for his writings in 'Trends', when the Second World War became imminent, the young Stone was asked to join the Ministry of Economic Warfare, which he did at the outbreak of war on 2 September 1939. He was given the task of tracking the imports of neutral countries. This led to him making one of the most accurate predictions in the history of economic forecasting -- only to have it ridiculed and himself reprimanded by "the Italophile section of the Foreign Office" (Pesaran 1991, 91). In May 1940 he noticed that all Italian oil-tankers were making for neutral ports around the Atlantic. Dick calculated that they would have reached their intended destinations by June 10th and predicted -- correctly -- that Italy would declare war on that day. The Foreign Office response: "Unfounded suspicions...Italy is a delightful country ... firm friend ... a catholic country which needs a lot of paraffin for altar candles" (quoted in Deaton 1993, 3).

from Pesaran and Harcourt (1999), Life and Work of John Richard Nicholas Stone 1913-1991

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